Research

I am an infectious disease modeller, particularly interested in the emergence and evolution of respiratory viruses with high pandemic potential in humans. Google Scholar.

In my PhD, I am modelling antigenic escape: the evolution of pathogens to evade existing immunity. Specifically, my research focuses on immune escape in the context of vaccination campaigns. According to phylodynamic theory, partial immunity—from vaccination or past infections—might select for mutant escape strains of the pathogen, thus reducing vaccine effectiveness. However, the overall potential for vaccine escape depends on many pathogen traits (e.g., intrinsic transmissibility) and population characteristics (e.g., the presence of immunocompromised hosts), which I explore in my thesis.

Using SIR-type deterministic models for human-to-human disease transmission, my PhD thesis characterises how a population’s vaccination coverage affects the risk of escape. It also considers the stochastic emergence of mutant escape strains and their subsequent epidemiological impact. I find that intermediate vaccination levels may increase the number of infections due to the higher risk of escape. Thus, certain vaccination strategies might unintentionally elevate the overall health burden.

These results have practical implications for public health and pandemic preparedness, and informing strategies for vaccination, genomic surveillance, and vaccine design.  Aligned with my broader research goals, this theoretical work is applicable to a wide range of infectious diseases, including SARS-CoV-2, influenza, and novel emerging pathogens.